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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still