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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd