A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
